Tynan on Technology (beta)

Six Technologies That Will Change Your Life

May 13, 2008 – 4:28 pm

In the next decade, we might not whiz around in jet cars or own personal robot servants, but we will whiz around in 3D virtual worlds and have access to the Internet from everywhere.

(A version of this story appeared in the March/April issue of Consumer Digest magazine, which has no real online presence – if you can believe that. So this is the only place you can find this story on the Net.)

By Dan Tynan

The invention of the telephone and television changed the lives of our grandparents and parents in the same way that computers and the Internet changed ours. When Consumers Digest turned its eye toward technology at the start of the next decade, we found that seemingly all roads lead to the Internet. Even smaller and smarter devices will allow the Net to touch virtually every aspect of our lives.

On the positive side, we’ll have even greater access to information 24/7. We might never have to stop and ask for directions again. Using mobile social networks, we’ll be able to connect more people easier and quicker than before. Thanks to the open-source software movement and Net-based computing, the software that we use will be cheaper, better and available everywhere.

But those enhancements come with a steep price—and we are not talking just dollars and cents. The goods and services we use could end up spying on us. Our already-compromised personal privacy will become even more endangered. It will be a wild ride. And it all starts with the Net.

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All Internet, All the Time

High-speed wireless networks and powerful portable devices will make using the Internet in nearly any location a reality. When you have a question, you’ll simply be able to look up the answer while pushing a shopping cart, driving your car or soaring at 35,000 feet.

Computer experts believe Internet access in cars has the potential to become as common as car radios. In fact, AutoNet is the first mobile service provider for automobiles. Meanwhile, gas-pump manufacturer Gilbarco Veeder-Root is putting Google Maps into 3,500 new fuel dispensers across the United States starting this month. Motorists at gas stations will be able to look up local merchants while the tank fills. Further, Virgin America Airlines now offers Internet access on some flights; JetBlue, Alaskan Airlines and American Airlines are testing similar services right now.

But the biggest changes will happen in your pocket. According to an April 2006 report by market research firm Ipsos Insight, mobile devices surpassed PCs as the most popular way to access the Net in some Asian countries and soon might do so in the United States. Geraldine Wilson, Yahoo Europe spokesperson, predicts that within 10 years mobile devices will be the primary way most of the world accesses the Web.

Though many handheld devices provide limited Net access, the next generations of these devices will have faster access and larger, more readable screens than what you’re used to seeing. Wireless carriers will offer download speeds almost as fast as home broadband. New phones based on Google’s Android software are expected to become more predominant than regular cellphone technology that exists today. The first cellphone among these will arrive sometime this year. It will resemble HTC’s Omni Communicator or the Nokia N810 Internet Tablet, which have 3- to 4-inch screens that slide up to reveal a small keyboard. “We’re very close to the point where you can expect to get online from any device you carry around with you,” says Jamais Cascio, founder of Open the Future, a technology consultancy.

The Good: You’ll get instant access to information—and access to more of that information.

“The result of the always-on Internet isn’t merely that you’ll be able to check your e-mail or look up things . . . wherever you are,” Cascio says. “You’ll also have access to information about whatever you happen to be doing.”

For example, in Japan, U.S. firm GeoVector Technologies and CyberMap Japan sell software that works with cellphones featuring GPS transponders and electronic compasses; point the cellphone’s camera at a building, and you’ll receive information about what businesses are inside it. According to GeoVector CEO John Ellenby, cellphones with Geovector’s service will be available in the United States starting at the end of this year.

The Bad: Using your phone to access the Net usually means buying a data plan from your wireless carrier, which is often slower, more costly and more limited than your home broadband plan. Home DSL or cable subscriptions usually start at around $30 a month and let you download an unlimited number of Web pages, music files, videos and more. But Verizon Wireless, for example, charges $60 a month for its wireless data plan, which is not unlimited.

Meanwhile, projects to offer low-cost citywide Wi-Fi access have stalled, due to their cost and opposition from cellular companies.

The exposure to another barrage of advertising is also a major downside. Everywhere the Net goes, advertising is sure to follow.

Bottom Line: As you surf the Net pay more attention to the privacy policies of the sites you visit and the services for which you sign up. Opt out wherever you feel uncomfortable.

GPS Location Tracking

We know what you did last summer—and where you did it. Devices with global positioning system (GPS) transponders built in can locate you just about anywhere on the planet via a satellite system created for the U.S. military. Soon, these devices will be everywhere.

Federal mandates for enhanced 911 services are starting to make GPS a standard part of most cellphones. Fleet cars typically have GPS transponders to track them if they’re lost or stolen. Many new cars come with GPS navigation devices built in, and expensive models feature concierge services that can, for example, pop open your car doors when you lock your keys inside.

ABI Research expects that by 2011 more than 100 million personal GPS devices will be sold annually worldwide. That figure does not include all the cellphones with GPS chips inside.

The Good: Call 911 on your cellphone and an ambulance will find you—thanks to GPS tracking. Spend an extra $10 a month on Verizon Wireless’s Chaperone Service, and you can locate your children by using their phones and receive alerts if they stray out of a pre-specified area, such as a school or a soccer field.

GPS devices in cars make it hard to get lost—most also feature databases that have the locations of nearby ATMs, gas stations, restaurants and stores.

The Bad: GPS transponders still need a clear view of the sky, so they don’t work well indoors. Worse, they are the world’s most efficient surveillance device, and GPS data is unregulated. Whoever collects your data could sell it.

The same concierge services that dispatch help when they detect that your vehicle’s airbags have deployed can lock down the ignition if you fall behind on your car payments: Sekurus’ On Time system installs underneath a car’s ignition and can be controlled remotely. A GPS-enabled “black box” in your car could record every swerve or each time you slam on the brakes, which might cause your insurance premiums to rise. Several states, including California, Minnesota and Oregon, ran pilot programs using GPS car data to levy road-use taxes or issue traffic tickets.

Records of your GPS locations could be requested by law enforcement, civil attorneys and anyone else with access to a subpoena, says Larry Ponemon, director of Ponemon Institute, a privacy management consultancy. “GPS is really nice for people getting lost in cars or street corners,” he adds. “But it’s also really nice for a boss or spouse to find you in a location you shouldn’t be.”

Bottom Line: Before agreeing to share your location with a company, ask who has access to your data and what they plan to do with it. When you really want to disappear, remember to turn off your cellphone.

Radio Frequency Identification Tags

Think of them as bar codes on steroids. Fingernail-sized Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tags are starting to be embedded in product packaging, clothing and cars. And they can get under people’s skin—literally. When read by a scanner, the RFID chip broadcasts a unique ID number that is matched to records in a database. In the next few years this practice is expected to become widespread.

Some of the biggest organizations in the world already use RFID, including Department of Homeland Security. According to ABI Research, more than $8 billion worth of RFID technology will be sold by 2012—more than double the amount sold today. Kimberly-Clark, Proctor& Gamble and Wal-Mart are experimenting with RFID tags inside individual products. Goodyear and Michelin are testing the tags inside tires, and Pfizer is testing tamper-proof RFID tags. Homeland Security now requires that all new U.S. passports contain RFID tags.

Right now, says Paul Fox, Proctor & Gamble spokesperson, the tags cost about 10 cents apiece, making them too expensive for use with individual items. “The widespread use of the [technology] within the consumer products segment will require a tag that costs less than a penny,” he says, adding that he is not sure exactly when that would happen.

About 2,000 RFID chips have been implanted under peoples’ arms, according to VeriChip, the company that makes the subcutaneous chips. The tags, in some cases, are used to control employee access to secure areas. VeriChip also is prepared to market an implantable RFID chip that gauges glucose levels in diabetes patients.

The Good: RFID can provide a wealth of information quickly and can be read at distances of up to 60 feet. With their use, scanners on store shelves could notify retailers when products are running low and automatically order more.

RFID tags can help companies identify faulty tires in case of a product recall or prevent counterfeit or altered pharmaceuticals from reaching store shelves.

In the case of medical RFIDs, doctors could wave a scanner over an implant to measure blood sugar without having to use a pinprick blood sample.

The Bad: Scanners in public places could read the RFID tags in your clothes, your car or your body and track your movements. Sound like science fiction? Last year, American Express applied for a patent for its RFID-enabled card to allow precisely that. (When news of the patent application became public, the company agreed to offer consumers a chipless card as well.) In 2006 IBM received a patent for RFID scanners that can be embedded in walls or floors and used to track and identify people.

“Carrying an RFID tag is like wearing a tracking beacon,” says Katherine Albrecht, co-author of “Spychips: How Major Corporations and Government Plan to Track Your Every Purchase and Watch Your Every Move” and founder of AntiChips.com. “As you walk around, this device in your shoe or your shirt transmits a unique number that can be linked to your real identity. A scanner can look inside your purse, see that you’re carrying a baby bottle, and know you’re a good candidate to receive spam and marketing materials for new mothers.”

In October 2007, California passed a law that prevents employers from requiring that employees get “chipped.” Similar laws passed in North Dakota and Wisconsin and are pending in five other states.

Bottom Line: Become aware of how these tags are used in the products you buy, and urge your legislators to enact privacy-friendly RFID laws.

Cloud Computing

You probably have a desktop or notebook computer that contains word processing software, a spreadsheet program, e-mail and all the documents, files and pictures you created. In a few years, a large portion of that software and data may move onto the Internet “cloud”—the servers that power the World Wide Web—allowing you to access your personal files from anywhere around the world.

If you have a Yahoo Mail or Hotmail account, you already use a very basic form of cloud computing—you can access these accounts from any computer. True cloud computing, however, eventually will replace desktop programs with so-called hosted applications that live on Internet servers, hundreds or thousands of miles from your machine.

No one is pushing cloud computing harder than Google. Over the past year, Google introduced free word processing, spreadsheet and presentation software, in addition to its search, e-mail, calendar and other Web-based applications. Microsoft also is pushing collaborative tools with its Office Live Workspaces products. Amazon, Dell, IBM and Sun Microsystems are working on similar initiatives aimed at big businesses.

The Good: You’ll be able to access your personal data from any computer with an Internet connection, including the portable one in your pocket. You’ll never have to remember to take work home on a flash drive or go back to the office to retrieve a file. You can let other people access your data, so you can collaborate on a document with colleagues who live 3,000 miles away, or your spouse can add that haircut appointment to your calendar. Because most of your computing takes place on the Net, your home computer can be a “thin client”—a less powerful, smaller and cheaper machine that uses a browser as its interface.

Data stored online likely will be better protected against viruses, hackers and other denizens of the Net’s dark side, thanks to industrial-strength security software. It also means there’s always a backup copy of your data, if disaster strikes.

The Bad: Until we all have failure-proof Internet access, our ability to access data and applications might depend on the reliability and speed of our connections. (Google’s Gears toolkit allows software developers to create programs that allow you to work offline and sync your data when you reconnect.) Most online software isn’t yet as powerful or as embedded with features as traditional software.

Plus, it’s risky entrusting all of your data to a single entity. Internet service providers (ISPs) might decide to share your data with marketers, or National Security Agency might decide to tap into your ISP’s data backbone. The potential for abuse multiplies when everything is passing through a single connection or company, says Jim Harper of Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank based in Washington.

“You may not be able to see it, but there’s a big stream of data going out of your house through your ISP. They get a look at everything that passed over your Net connection,” he adds.

Harper believes new types of wireless networking technology will allow people to share one Internet account among a community of users, giving them greater anonymity. Other privacy advocates believe federal legislation is the answer.

“We need a comprehensive privacy law that allows consumers to understand how their information is being used and what they can do to protect themselves,” says Alissa Cooper, of Center for Democracy and Technology in Washington.

Bottom Line: Cloud computing will allow us to access our software and data from almost anywhere, but it’s not the best choice for every person or type of data. When you want to keep something personal, do it offline.

Open-Source Software

Once the sole territory of geeks, open-source software—programs whose code is owned by no one and can be edited or improved by anyone with sufficient technical skill—will soon be part of everyone’s computing lives. Many people and companies have moved away from proprietary computer programs controlled by individual companies and toward open-source software.

Today more than 100 million people use Mozilla Firefox an open-source browser created by some 600 volunteer coders working for Mozilla.org. Users have taken advantage of Ubuntu Linux, a popular open-source operating system, instead of Microsoft Windows. Sun reports that more than 100 million people have downloaded the company’s OpenOffice suite.

But open-source software is about to make the jump from computers to more consumer-friendly devices. The recently formed Open Handset Alliance—a coalition of 34 handset makers, telecom carriers and Google—plans to bring open-source software to mobile phones this year.

The Good: Open-source software is usually free and often works better than software sold at retail. For example, Sun’s OpenOffice suite is nearly the equal of Microsoft Office Standard 2007 without the $399 attached.

Open-source programs also can be a safer option for regular computer users. They aren’t necessarily more secure than proprietary software, but hackers tend to focus more on commercial programs, because there are more potential victims. In addition, when vulnerabilities and other flaws are detected, they are fixed faster, thanks to the community approach. Open-source software tends to be updated more often as well, which means new features, such as “tabbed browsing,” which lets you open multiple pages in a single window, appear sooner in Firefox, than they do in Internet Explorer. Consequently, open-source applications are more innovative.

The Bad: Unfortunately, open-source software might not work with your other devices or programs, and it might not offer features you truly need. Some Web sites (Windows Update, CinemaNow and many banking sites) work correctly only with Internet Explorer, not Firefox. Only a fraction of the people who use Firefox adopted Mozilla’s Thunderbird e-mail software, because it lacks features found in Microsoft Outlook that allow corporations to manage e-mail for all users on their networks. Consumers tend to use the same e-mail program at home that they do at work.

Even worse, when things go wrong, you must rely on other users in online forums to provide answers, or be willing to fork over some cash. If you want Dell to provide tech support for its Linux PCs, for example, you’ll have to pay about $125 to $275 annually.

Bottom line: Open-source software will lead to a wider choice of computers, cellphones and other gadgets, but you will have to become more technically savvy if you want to rely on it.

Virtual Worlds

If you think the Web is interesting now, wait until you see it in 3D. Virtual worlds—animated landscapes that you can explore using a cartoon-like version of yourself called an avatar—will replace many 2D Web sites for games, socializing and shopping in the next few years.

Research firm Gartner projects that by 2011 50 million Internet users will spend part of every day in online 3D worlds. By 2016 half of all Internet users will use online avatars, according to The Metaverse Roadmap Project, a nonprofit research group.

In Linden Lab’s Second Life virtual world, for example, you can select an avatar; change his or her appearance, clothing or gender; then wander through cities and across oceans, chatting with other avatars you meet along the way. You can buy your own private island and erect your dream home, or open up a shop and sell virtual goods to other Second Lifers. On Blizzard Entertainment’s World of Warcraft, you can outfit your warrior avatar and do battle with millions of other players. Sony launched a 3D world based on the “Star Wars” movies. Kids who join Club Penguin can guide their avian avatars through a variety of cartoon worlds and play games. Many 3D worlds are free to join; others charge monthly subscription fees of $5 to $15.

Today avatars and virtual worlds are largely for gaming and socializing, but eventually they’ll be used for more common online activities, such as shopping, work and education.

“When you want to buy a book, instead of going to Amazon’s homepage, you’ll be greeted by a virtual salesperson,” says William Halal, professor emeritus at George Washington University and author of the soon-to-be-published book “Technology’s Promise: Expert Knowledge on the Coming Transformation of Society.” “The avatar will find the book you’re looking for and conduct the transaction, just as you would with a real person.”

The Good: From an entertainment standpoint, you might be able to live inside a virtual world based on your favorite TV show or movie and interact with other fans. On social networks, your avatar will interact with those of your friends and dating partners—and in the virtual world your “online self” can always be young and thin.

But 3D worlds aren’t all just fun and games. Your avatar will act as a stand-in for shopping trips and more.

Want to buy property? You’ll be able to walk through a 3D model without ever leaving your home, and the ability to hold virtual meetings with colleagues across the country will mean less business travel. Three-dimensional simulations have long been used to train pilots; they might train the next generation of doctors.

The Bad: The technology can be daunting. Linden Lab spokesperson Catherine Smith admits that only about 10 percent of the 11 million people signed up for Second Life become regular visitors, in part because the software is difficult to master and requires a lot of computing power. Creating virtual goods still requires programming and design skills that are beyond the average user’s abilities.

The ease with which people can create fake avatars increases the opportunity for misbehavior and outright fraud and, so far, there are no virtual cops to enforce the law. Legal difficulties have started to creep over to the real world. Last November, police in the Netherlands arrested a 17-year-old for stealing nearly $6,000 worth of virtual goods on Habbo Hotel.

Bottom line: At some point it will be hard to use the Net without encountering some kind of virtual world. If you get to know your avatar now, you’ll feel more comfortable later.

Signposts

The combination of powerful portable computers and wireless Internet access will change our lives in ways even the brainiest of us can’t yet imagine. There will be vast amounts of new data available about you and your activities, and how that data will be used (or protected) is still to be decided.

“The genie is already out of the bottle,” says Pradeep Khosla, dean of Carnegie Technology Institute in Pittsburgh. “You can’t stop information from being created and used. You need to put laws in place that provide a significant penalty for the abuse and misuse of information. I don’t think we’re quite there yet.”

Of course, you can choose to not participate, just as you can choose to not own a telephone or a TV set. But odds are you will. And if not, you’ll be missing out on a brave new world that’s getting braver all the time.

Dan Tynan has been writing about technology and its discontents for more than 20 years and writes the “Gadget Freak” column for PC World magazine and Our Digital Life for US Airways Magazine. He is the author of “Computer Privacy Annoyances.”